* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 26 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 26 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 27 23 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 5 5 5 3 5 5 11 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 3 3 0 0 -1 -2 1 -2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 242 243 251 267 38 108 51 131 140 148 172 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 111 108 105 110 110 113 117 115 114 114 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 37 34 32 31 28 28 25 23 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 -4 0 9 3 4 9 4 -8 -19 -25 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -26 -35 -26 -29 -24 -51 -67 -38 -41 -44 -23 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 9 11 12 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 141 212 263 309 436 602 770 933 1019 1059 1110 1199 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.5 23.8 22.8 21.8 21.0 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.4 114.9 115.4 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.5 121.5 122.1 122.7 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 6 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -21. -23. -23. -21. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.7 113.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##