* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 19 18 17 18 18 20 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 26 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 19 18 17 18 18 20 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 25 22 20 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 4 3 7 4 3 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 241 261 272 351 80 156 116 146 139 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 111 107 106 108 112 112 116 117 115 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 35 32 31 31 28 26 24 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -3 7 6 4 0 4 3 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -36 -25 -29 -28 -30 -66 -38 -47 -34 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 8 10 12 9 5 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 205 265 322 381 518 696 853 978 1037 1052 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.0 22.0 21.1 20.7 20.5 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.3 114.9 115.4 115.9 117.0 118.4 119.6 120.8 121.4 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 113.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/11/21 06 UTC ## ##