* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 59 60 59 57 52 46 39 33 31 29 27 25 24 22 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 59 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 62 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 19 22 27 26 32 43 44 46 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 6 0 1 1 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 249 253 268 280 263 269 261 265 266 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 168 167 167 162 165 167 163 163 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 151 148 146 142 134 136 137 133 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 7 5 9 6 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 64 61 54 55 51 51 41 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -14 -7 -17 -48 15 17 46 -28 -30 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 61 43 56 56 88 60 33 39 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 15 32 27 13 12 0 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 67 84 19 -48 -130 -146 -179 -205 -226 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.2 27.2 28.1 29.0 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.6 31.8 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.6 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.0 95.2 94.6 93.7 92.6 91.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 33 34 39 38 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -28. -31. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 2. -4. -11. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.1 96.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.3% 8.4% 7.4% 5.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.6% 6.7% 4.7% 1.5% 4.1% 2.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.5% 5.0% 4.1% 2.2% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 59 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 54 42 29 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 35 22 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT