* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 36 34 36 38 42 44 44 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 36 34 36 38 42 44 44 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 36 33 31 29 29 31 34 36 38 38 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 25 23 27 31 34 23 15 15 13 19 31 30 38 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 6 4 -2 1 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 227 244 254 253 250 259 258 298 295 298 266 256 250 247 246 238 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.6 26.6 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 148 148 150 146 148 150 151 152 144 138 132 121 126 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 136 134 135 129 130 131 131 130 123 117 114 104 107 99 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -56.5 -56.8 -56.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 52 52 56 56 54 52 53 54 54 56 59 54 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -10 -15 -12 -7 -6 2 19 15 28 9 -12 23 22 28 15 200 MB DIV 9 0 11 14 10 7 26 9 0 0 -15 -6 -3 28 -1 5 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -8 -1 -4 0 0 1 0 2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 413 341 300 295 322 384 436 531 680 846 1003 1158 1104 1076 913 740 624 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.2 23.2 24.1 25.4 26.8 28.1 29.4 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.1 64.2 65.0 65.9 67.2 68.0 67.9 67.5 66.9 66.3 65.7 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 8 7 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 45 57 75 86 59 45 43 38 40 37 30 14 4 18 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -7. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.8 62.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 40 38 36 34 36 38 42 44 44 44 43 43 43 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 40 38 36 34 36 38 42 44 44 44 43 43 43 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 37 35 33 35 37 41 43 43 43 42 42 42 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 30 28 30 32 36 38 38 38 37 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT