* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 29 29 31 32 35 38 42 44 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 29 29 31 32 35 38 42 44 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 25 23 21 20 20 22 24 27 30 33 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 27 31 31 30 21 10 14 8 12 19 24 26 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 2 1 -1 2 4 0 -3 -3 -6 -2 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 253 250 263 261 258 293 263 292 239 259 254 261 278 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.1 26.9 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 152 152 150 149 154 154 149 149 143 138 125 118 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 139 139 136 132 130 135 134 126 126 123 121 110 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -56.3 -57.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 54 55 57 56 55 53 53 52 53 52 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -15 -15 -13 -13 -6 19 30 41 29 19 18 24 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 3 -7 0 17 17 11 0 3 -1 0 -1 -10 12 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 1 -3 -4 0 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 226 245 294 330 395 475 587 781 898 981 1112 1307 1202 898 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.9 26.8 27.4 28.4 30.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.9 65.8 66.5 67.2 67.7 67.8 67.3 66.3 65.7 65.2 64.4 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 6 5 5 7 7 4 5 8 11 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 56 73 89 96 80 55 48 43 37 35 28 20 8 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. 0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 64.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 29 29 29 31 32 35 38 42 44 45 45 46 49 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 31 31 33 34 37 40 44 46 47 47 48 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 30 32 33 36 39 43 45 46 46 47 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 25 27 28 31 34 38 40 41 41 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT