* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 32 37 41 41 40 40 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 32 37 41 41 40 40 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 24 29 31 28 33 23 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 1 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 308 306 292 296 294 271 273 264 260 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 131 132 131 128 123 119 114 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 116 116 114 111 107 105 100 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -56.0 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 42 43 45 49 50 52 52 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -38 -47 -53 -63 -42 1 49 86 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -10 -5 6 4 9 23 10 34 3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 5 7 7 7 11 12 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2342 2405 2470 2506 2451 2331 2314 2150 1895 1731 1641 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.0 26.7 28.1 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.9 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.7 40.3 40.9 41.2 41.5 40.9 39.2 36.7 33.6 31.5 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 8 10 12 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 25 23 17 11 10 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 7. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.8 39.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 8.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/22/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 32 37 41 41 40 40 40 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 31 30 31 36 40 40 39 39 39 39 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 28 27 28 33 37 37 36 36 36 36 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 20 21 26 30 30 29 29 29 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT