* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 46 48 45 42 42 42 42 40 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 46 48 45 42 42 42 42 40 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 31 33 34 36 38 40 41 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 32 31 26 20 14 20 23 24 16 8 9 7 10 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 291 282 265 264 260 229 249 252 273 289 320 298 309 26 38 21 10 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.6 23.7 23.2 23.1 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 127 126 120 117 112 106 103 95 89 89 92 92 90 90 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 113 114 109 106 100 94 90 82 75 76 78 79 78 77 76 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -56.8 -57.3 -57.1 -57.1 -56.9 -57.0 -57.0 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 47 47 43 44 48 54 50 45 41 40 37 37 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -63 -53 -37 -15 35 60 48 27 -21 -56 -76 -95 -92 -113 -121 -129 200 MB DIV -8 10 8 2 31 9 19 9 13 -17 -27 -21 -11 -28 -10 -44 -23 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 6 7 10 8 9 10 4 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 2278 2261 2312 2269 2099 1766 1530 1460 1446 1412 1304 1320 1401 1545 1711 1874 1915 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 29.3 31.6 34.0 35.7 36.2 36.5 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 41.1 39.9 38.3 36.6 33.1 30.0 28.0 26.4 24.8 23.6 23.9 25.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 12 15 16 15 14 14 13 9 2 4 6 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 12 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 23. 20. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.3 41.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 46 48 45 42 42 42 42 40 38 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 39 44 46 43 40 40 40 40 38 36 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 35 40 42 39 36 36 36 36 34 32 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 32 34 31 28 28 28 28 26 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT