* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 09/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 42 38 35 31 26 21 20 21 23 26 29 30 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 42 38 35 31 26 21 20 21 23 26 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 40 37 33 30 26 22 19 17 16 17 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 5 9 20 24 25 31 31 24 23 20 28 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 19 17 19 7 4 5 8 5 9 1 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 251 237 168 167 188 193 214 231 244 246 274 280 288 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 136 133 133 130 127 125 131 130 132 128 122 117 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 138 135 131 130 127 123 120 123 119 117 111 104 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.9 -55.0 -55.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 63 63 58 55 51 48 43 43 45 46 48 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 23 23 19 16 13 11 9 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 67 63 68 69 74 72 56 31 -11 -38 -67 -74 -73 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 107 85 51 39 13 5 33 35 28 25 -20 2 14 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 4 6 6 9 15 22 18 11 10 1 -5 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1413 1499 1581 1661 1746 1869 1985 2003 2076 2218 2428 2390 2204 2048 1907 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.1 11.6 13.1 14.6 16.7 19.0 21.7 24.5 26.9 28.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.8 36.4 38.2 39.9 41.3 42.3 42.6 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 15 13 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 8 8 13 16 8 8 13 22 18 7 6 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -29. -33. -35. -34. -33. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -20. -19. -17. -14. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.7 29.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 22.7% 14.6% 9.5% 7.1% 11.0% 10.8% 9.9% Logistic: 5.7% 11.6% 7.0% 3.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 12.1% 7.6% 4.4% 2.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 46 42 38 35 31 26 21 20 21 23 26 29 30 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 39 35 32 28 23 18 17 18 20 23 26 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 34 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT