* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 74 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 74 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 83 78 72 60 48 41 41 46 51 51 51 52 55 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 13 20 27 35 32 5 21 26 21 13 9 12 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 5 4 10 8 5 6 3 4 1 -5 -5 -6 -3 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 202 201 196 205 179 201 205 187 178 180 173 187 196 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.8 22.8 21.5 19.2 14.8 13.7 12.8 11.6 11.1 9.9 9.4 9.8 9.1 8.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 107 96 92 82 69 68 68 67 67 64 60 61 63 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 88 86 76 65 64 65 65 65 63 58 59 61 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -51.7 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -50.2 -48.9 -48.2 -48.6 -48.9 -49.1 -50.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 1.2 4.6 2.7 2.3 3.1 3.6 2.8 3.1 3.7 5.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 52 59 47 48 58 61 73 81 80 65 71 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 38 40 40 48 46 37 31 29 33 32 28 27 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 96 135 155 190 268 267 261 295 316 265 229 157 146 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 29 46 60 16 58 33 20 46 44 65 17 33 24 94 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -15 2 -30 4 -2 0 -26 -25 -2 8 -4 -10 -4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 892 795 749 716 826 917 1044 1431 1350 1216 1250 1273 1322 1425 1485 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.7 39.9 41.1 43.7 46.3 49.8 50.4 51.7 53.8 57.0 60.3 61.4 59.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.2 50.1 47.9 45.0 42.1 40.5 38.8 33.5 30.6 28.5 27.2 27.3 28.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 27 33 25 11 12 15 15 17 11 3 4 8 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -29. -40. -51. -61. -67. -73. -78. -83. -85. -86. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -10. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 8. 8. -4. -12. -15. -11. -13. -20. -21. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -27. -42. -58. -65. -63. -67. -75. -77. -84. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 38.7 52.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 5( 25) 3( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 86 81 74 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 81 74 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 74 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 66 62 47 31 24 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 60 45 29 22 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 69 65 50 34 27 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 86 77 71 67 63 48 32 25 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS