* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEENE EP162021 10/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 51 65 77 86 86 83 73 45 43 45 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 51 65 77 86 86 83 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 44 53 65 74 76 75 64 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 9 12 9 10 8 10 17 28 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 -3 2 4 8 3 4 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 6 5 355 337 333 283 288 217 184 199 215 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.7 30.5 30.5 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 168 170 169 165 161 158 162 171 171 151 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 8 7 4 4 5 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 73 70 67 64 63 53 49 47 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 19 20 23 27 30 30 29 26 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 28 28 14 15 15 15 39 47 64 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 78 77 80 64 68 80 88 47 62 26 25 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -4 -7 -10 -7 -5 2 8 0 1 -6 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 379 388 423 450 519 548 458 257 99 -7 -297 -570 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 13 10 10 9 6 7 10 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 25 26 23 20 20 23 27 33 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 21. 23. 22. 16. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 21. 35. 47. 56. 56. 53. 43. 15. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 102.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 SIXTEENE 10/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 22.2% 19.3% 18.4% 0.0% 19.4% 23.8% 44.1% Logistic: 3.4% 24.3% 12.3% 6.9% 1.7% 29.4% 54.3% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 11.7% 5.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% Consensus: 4.1% 19.4% 12.4% 9.0% 0.7% 16.8% 26.3% 19.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 14.0% 32.0% 50.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 SIXTEENE 10/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##