* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162021 10/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 52 65 75 81 82 69 38 38 40 43 44 43 43 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 52 65 75 81 82 69 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 60 65 66 55 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 8 9 10 7 20 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 14 14 7 357 292 281 258 220 198 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 30.8 30.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 165 161 160 159 156 157 172 173 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.5 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 71 67 63 62 58 48 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 19 23 26 28 28 22 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 19 20 11 12 0 13 9 46 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 62 78 51 44 80 54 62 55 76 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -10 -11 -8 -7 -2 1 5 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 426 467 486 521 548 502 356 129 52 -273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.8 24.1 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.5 106.8 107.7 108.5 109.7 110.4 110.1 109.6 108.0 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 8 7 7 9 12 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 21 21 18 17 19 32 34 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 34. 38. 41. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 21. 12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 22. 35. 45. 51. 52. 39. 8. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 104.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 SIXTEEN 10/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 23.9% 19.9% 18.8% 0.0% 19.8% 24.7% 41.9% Logistic: 14.8% 59.6% 39.8% 27.8% 13.4% 50.1% 36.2% 7.9% Bayesian: 2.2% 19.8% 7.5% 2.2% 0.5% 5.3% 3.4% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 34.4% 22.4% 16.3% 4.6% 25.1% 21.4% 16.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 18.0% 23.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 SIXTEEN 10/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##