* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 57 64 77 83 87 82 54 37 36 36 38 39 38 39 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 57 64 77 83 87 82 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 72 80 82 76 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 7 10 14 12 23 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 2 6 6 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 14 1 358 340 286 277 230 203 198 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 30.8 30.9 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 161 160 158 156 171 173 151 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.3 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 67 64 62 59 50 48 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 23 25 27 26 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 7 9 4 2 2 31 47 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 57 42 42 47 77 59 57 37 23 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -9 -6 -6 -6 0 5 1 -13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 438 465 472 495 497 400 217 137 -156 -471 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.7 18.0 19.3 21.0 23.0 25.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.7 109.9 109.5 108.1 106.4 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 22 21 18 18 39 39 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -6. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. -3. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 37. 43. 47. 42. 14. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 105.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 23.1% 20.4% 19.8% 11.8% 20.6% 24.1% 32.3% Logistic: 3.6% 18.8% 9.4% 5.1% 2.8% 15.6% 23.0% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.5% 5.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 21.5% 11.7% 8.7% 5.1% 12.3% 15.7% 11.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 35.0% 22.0% 21.0% 12.0% 23.0% 51.0% 72.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##