* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 61 67 75 80 85 69 45 38 37 37 38 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 61 67 75 80 85 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 65 74 79 79 56 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 8 5 8 12 10 20 30 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -2 1 5 0 7 -2 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 359 342 325 282 292 255 225 203 229 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.2 30.2 30.9 29.3 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 161 160 160 156 167 172 160 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 63 62 60 58 48 47 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 21 22 24 25 28 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 10 5 -2 3 9 45 59 43 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 57 72 78 86 64 65 53 45 19 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -6 -7 -7 -3 1 4 -14 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 434 460 470 486 445 270 147 -59 -423 -447 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.9 20.5 22.2 24.6 27.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 108.1 108.7 109.2 109.8 109.6 108.6 107.0 104.5 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 8 9 12 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 22 20 19 18 31 38 20 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -16. -16. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 14. 4. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 30. 35. 40. 24. 0. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 106.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.52 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 25.0% 22.9% 22.4% 13.3% 24.7% 32.8% 19.5% Logistic: 4.9% 25.6% 16.1% 9.9% 6.6% 18.3% 16.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.2% 4.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 20.9% 14.6% 11.3% 7.0% 14.5% 16.6% 7.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##