* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 62 70 76 70 46 42 39 38 39 40 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 62 70 76 62 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 58 64 67 56 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 12 8 7 11 12 18 32 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 -1 1 4 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 357 341 308 296 266 235 213 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.5 30.9 30.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 160 158 159 172 167 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -50.6 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 62 60 59 53 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 22 24 25 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 6 2 0 -3 6 31 58 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 49 58 74 66 56 63 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -5 -5 -9 0 9 -10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 440 444 465 462 459 347 202 -22 -400 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.8 21.6 24.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.6 108.6 106.9 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 9 12 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 20 19 22 47 28 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 6. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 25. 1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 107.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 23.1% 21.2% 20.5% 12.4% 20.1% 24.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 16.3% 9.0% 4.8% 3.4% 7.1% 5.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 14.0% 10.2% 8.5% 5.3% 9.1% 10.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 44.0% 34.0% 20.0% 19.0% 26.0% 36.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##