* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 78 82 89 73 63 52 44 40 37 36 35 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 78 82 89 59 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 77 81 80 55 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 12 12 12 17 28 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 1 5 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 310 299 296 271 224 217 238 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.2 30.8 28.7 28.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 161 167 172 154 154 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 6 5 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 59 51 46 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 21 23 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -15 -11 4 1 53 46 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 62 66 44 57 79 50 58 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -10 -6 0 7 -8 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 441 416 394 360 338 188 -126 -541 -315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 22.1 24.3 27.1 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.6 108.8 108.9 109.0 107.8 105.8 103.0 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 13 17 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 22 30 40 15 14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 22. 29. 13. 3. -8. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 43.2% 38.5% 30.6% 22.4% 29.4% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 13.7% 21.2% 13.2% 8.7% 5.0% 12.1% 4.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 6.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 23.7% 18.1% 13.5% 9.4% 13.9% 6.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 61.0% 40.0% 24.0% 16.0% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##