* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 74 73 61 56 47 41 37 36 36 33 31 26 24 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 74 73 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 68 69 64 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 25 35 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 3 1 4 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 314 298 271 246 224 233 240 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.3 30.8 30.9 28.5 28.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 168 172 173 154 152 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 5 8 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 57 53 47 45 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -12 -1 -2 16 59 47 15 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 50 31 31 57 49 63 95 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -7 0 3 -5 4 37 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 444 419 403 334 256 60 -334 -312 -412 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.1 21.0 23.1 25.7 29.2 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.0 108.6 107.1 104.4 100.0 95.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 15 22 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 32 45 38 14 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -13. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. -0. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 13. 1. -4. -13. -19. -23. -24. -24. -27. -29. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 108.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 37.5% 27.9% 23.7% 14.8% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 12.1% 6.8% 3.6% 1.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 17.1% 11.7% 9.1% 5.5% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 43.0% 31.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##