* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 66 66 53 50 44 41 38 37 37 38 36 35 32 31 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 66 66 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 65 43 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 18 21 33 29 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 8 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 295 267 246 238 226 256 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.0 30.6 30.8 30.8 28.6 28.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 171 171 173 154 153 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 54 48 46 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 -6 18 37 39 11 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 17 23 49 39 44 61 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 1 1 8 -9 68 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 385 326 292 250 165 -216 -353 -345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.3 24.8 28.2 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.7 108.5 108.1 107.7 105.1 100.9 97.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 14 21 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 27 39 46 39 14 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -9. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -12. -15. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. -27. -29. -30. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.7 108.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 23.2% 21.0% 20.3% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.1% 7.7% 7.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##