* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 71 64 55 48 44 40 36 35 35 35 33 30 26 23 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 71 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 72 69 57 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 23 30 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 1 1 3 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 268 244 233 222 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.5 30.7 30.8 29.8 28.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 170 172 173 166 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 6 5 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 46 43 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 22 54 64 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 28 30 19 24 36 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 4 4 -15 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 274 213 116 -37 -504 -344 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.8 23.9 27.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 108.7 108.4 107.5 106.6 103.4 99.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 11 14 18 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 43 48 46 26 13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -6. -15. -22. -26. -30. -34. -35. -35. -35. -37. -40. -44. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 109.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##