* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 46 44 42 38 35 30 24 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 53 49 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 31 37 39 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 4 6 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 253 233 223 229 233 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.7 30.9 29.9 28.5 28.5 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 172 173 167 153 155 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 43 41 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 19 45 68 53 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 44 41 41 50 37 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 -16 -2 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 194 158 -33 -223 -450 -407 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.3 28.6 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 108.7 108.0 106.8 105.5 101.8 97.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 17 21 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 45 54 26 12 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -31. -38. -41. -44. -47. -50. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -8. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -14. -16. -18. -22. -25. -30. -36. -38. -39. -40. -44. -48. -55. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.6 109.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##