* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 48 41 38 35 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 48 36 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 49 37 33 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 23 32 40 39 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 240 229 232 239 241 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.9 30.3 28.5 28.5 28.0 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 171 154 154 149 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 8 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 43 43 41 42 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 10 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 45 67 47 32 30 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 47 69 54 12 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 -4 -2 27 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 157 0 -245 -489 -364 -471 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.7 23.8 25.4 26.9 30.3 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.0 107.0 105.3 103.5 99.6 96.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 18 22 23 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 54 32 12 13 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -19. -29. -39. -47. -51. -54. -58. -63. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -4. -9. -11. -11. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -12. -19. -22. -25. -30. -35. -42. -49. -54. -55. -57. -60. -64. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.5 108.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##