* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAMELA EP162021 10/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 240 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 2 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 34 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -514 -308 -249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 28.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.6 100.4 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 1. -10. -25. -38. -47. -50. -53. -55. -59. -68. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -15. -13. -13. -11. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -19. -18. -18. -19. -20. -23. -26. -26. -27. -25. -27. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.5 102.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162021 PAMELA 10/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.7 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.7 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.3 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162021 PAMELA 10/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##