* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172021 10/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 50 59 71 78 78 66 57 46 46 46 48 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 50 59 71 78 78 66 48 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 58 65 66 64 51 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 5 4 4 11 15 20 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -4 -1 0 -5 -6 -6 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 76 65 91 108 188 137 139 173 193 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 159 159 159 162 164 162 154 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 8 7 9 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 73 67 58 55 52 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 14 17 17 14 11 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 29 41 47 47 44 49 53 52 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 97 130 148 162 168 110 105 86 59 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 439 444 412 380 321 274 190 56 -29 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 20 20 19 20 22 22 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 29. 41. 48. 48. 36. 27. 16. 16. 16. 18. 17. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 100.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 SEVENTEEN 10/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 34.6% 23.6% 22.5% 0.0% 44.9% 59.0% 57.7% Logistic: 8.4% 56.7% 41.8% 31.6% 25.1% 70.3% 84.7% 28.5% Bayesian: 9.4% 29.9% 31.0% 8.0% 2.6% 17.1% 10.6% 7.2% Consensus: 9.1% 40.4% 32.2% 20.7% 9.2% 44.1% 51.4% 31.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 45.0% 23.0% 17.0% 8.0% 22.0% 33.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 SEVENTEEN 10/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##