* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172021 10/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 50 57 66 75 77 66 56 47 38 33 28 29 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 42 50 57 66 75 77 66 56 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 51 57 65 66 64 63 47 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 12 8 7 7 8 13 19 27 31 29 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -5 -3 0 1 -6 -3 -5 -2 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 74 104 141 145 147 134 175 185 198 213 226 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 159 160 163 163 160 152 154 150 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 68 60 51 49 42 36 31 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 17 15 11 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 37 42 45 43 41 47 54 43 60 44 11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 143 153 168 181 145 110 54 40 30 0 -16 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 441 423 405 371 336 298 223 138 39 -54 -125 -106 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 18.1 19.4 20.6 21.7 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.3 101.7 101.9 102.2 102.6 103.0 103.4 103.7 104.0 104.1 104.3 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 19 20 22 23 21 16 22 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -0. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 31. 40. 42. 31. 21. 12. 3. -2. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 100.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 SEVENTEEN 10/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.95 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 62.0% 43.5% 28.7% 17.4% 59.9% 67.9% 53.9% Logistic: 16.7% 67.7% 56.7% 51.1% 48.0% 76.8% 77.0% 16.4% Bayesian: 5.6% 42.8% 45.2% 20.0% 6.5% 24.3% 16.1% 1.6% Consensus: 11.7% 57.5% 48.5% 33.3% 24.0% 53.7% 53.7% 24.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 43.0% 18.0% 10.0% 5.0% 22.0% 14.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 SEVENTEEN 10/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##