* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 63 70 80 82 68 58 47 39 37 37 38 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 63 70 80 82 68 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 58 64 74 76 70 50 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 2 4 9 15 17 26 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 0 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 69 36 106 167 143 160 185 196 217 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 28.8 28.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 160 161 163 162 153 154 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 7 7 7 10 7 8 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 69 64 58 52 51 50 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 17 13 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 34 34 32 35 42 42 37 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 109 99 93 107 102 91 66 58 -1 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 424 392 359 330 301 246 156 65 -53 -154 -275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.6 17.6 19.1 21.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.5 101.8 102.0 102.3 102.5 102.9 103.3 103.5 103.8 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 10 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 20 21 23 22 14 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 30. 40. 42. 28. 18. 7. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 101.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 12.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 12.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 8.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 68.9% 57.5% 47.6% 30.5% 64.1% 66.4% 48.4% Logistic: 26.3% 76.0% 67.7% 62.1% 41.3% 72.3% 63.0% 13.0% Bayesian: 11.0% 36.9% 41.7% 20.7% 5.6% 18.6% 10.2% 1.9% Consensus: 19.3% 60.6% 55.6% 43.5% 25.8% 51.7% 46.5% 21.1% DTOPS: 21.0% 60.0% 38.0% 23.0% 15.0% 38.0% 38.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##