* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 72 79 84 91 86 71 58 48 39 36 36 36 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 55 64 72 79 84 91 86 62 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 80 85 92 88 68 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 0 4 9 12 16 23 31 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 22 309 167 147 143 159 188 214 221 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 160 161 163 163 155 153 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 7 9 8 8 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 66 61 54 50 50 48 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 16 15 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 26 30 28 26 37 27 43 2 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 95 95 113 123 85 85 63 30 -5 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 2 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 382 353 323 289 256 211 102 -30 -177 -198 -334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.0 17.1 18.6 20.5 22.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.4 101.6 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.5 103.0 103.3 103.6 103.8 104.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 9 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 20 20 22 23 17 16 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 24. 29. 36. 31. 16. 3. -7. -16. -19. -19. -19. -20. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.7 101.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 15.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 17.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 19.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 16.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -13.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 7.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 15.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 84% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.2% 96.2% 93.3% 89.7% 63.9% 83.8% 62.5% 20.8% Logistic: 49.1% 73.2% 70.7% 66.1% 49.3% 65.6% 51.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 42.9% 51.6% 65.8% 49.6% 18.4% 20.5% 5.4% 0.0% Consensus: 51.1% 73.7% 76.6% 68.5% 43.9% 56.6% 39.9% 8.8% DTOPS: 51.0% 66.0% 59.0% 47.0% 30.0% 48.0% 14.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##