* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 83 82 76 63 52 44 42 42 43 44 45 46 48 49 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 83 82 76 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 84 84 77 55 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 5 10 18 21 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 174 144 147 145 162 198 210 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.6 28.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 160 159 149 145 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 9 8 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 59 54 52 49 48 52 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 16 14 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 31 23 23 18 31 13 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 97 74 55 61 73 71 25 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -2 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 248 222 189 158 89 -67 -157 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.2 18.7 20.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 101.8 101.9 102.0 102.1 102.4 102.8 103.3 103.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 20 20 20 13 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -15. -21. -24. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 7. 1. -12. -23. -31. -33. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.9 101.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 11.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.2% 53.5% 51.8% 47.3% 40.5% 28.9% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 40.8% 46.9% 50.9% 43.2% 37.0% 24.7% 10.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 37.2% 47.6% 39.0% 27.3% 13.2% 5.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 42.4% 49.3% 47.3% 39.3% 30.2% 19.7% 8.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 30.0% 38.0% 26.0% 16.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##