* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 84 84 74 66 56 52 50 48 48 49 50 50 50 50 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 84 84 74 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 81 80 73 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 9 13 16 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -4 -4 -4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 168 181 161 163 192 205 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.2 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 160 159 154 145 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 9 10 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 56 54 52 49 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 14 13 14 16 7 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 84 65 60 62 69 59 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 229 198 152 108 0 -122 -180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.8 18.0 19.4 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.4 102.9 103.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 20 20 17 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 9. -1. -9. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.6% 54.6% 46.6% 35.4% 32.9% 23.3% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 55.3% 57.8% 58.3% 52.5% 66.0% 30.3% 6.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 33.2% 56.7% 43.5% 32.9% 29.9% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 43.7% 56.3% 49.5% 40.3% 42.9% 19.7% 6.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 29.0% 16.0% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##