* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 77 73 65 58 51 48 47 46 47 48 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 77 73 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 74 71 54 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 12 15 18 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 183 155 156 162 196 206 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.8 28.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 158 151 147 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 52 50 49 49 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 10 15 26 3 22 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 58 49 70 75 54 30 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 193 153 111 72 -44 -123 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 18.4 19.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.8 102.0 102.5 103.4 104.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 20 20 14 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -17. -24. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.3 101.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 29.1% 26.7% 23.4% 17.1% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 14.6% 14.8% 9.4% 13.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 5.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 16.3% 14.5% 11.2% 10.2% 7.4% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##