* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 71 68 62 54 51 49 47 47 47 48 49 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 71 68 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 70 67 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 14 14 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 169 164 165 185 207 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 154 151 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 51 49 49 50 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 12 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 6 9 16 8 2 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 42 51 52 65 46 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 128 86 54 11 -107 -98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 19.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 101.8 101.8 102.0 102.2 103.1 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 17 15 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -4. -7. -13. -21. -24. -26. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -26. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 101.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 22.3% 21.4% 20.6% 13.6% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 6.1% 6.2% 3.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 10.1% 9.3% 8.0% 5.8% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##