* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 72 68 61 53 50 48 47 46 47 48 49 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 72 56 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 73 70 56 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 15 17 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 2 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 158 165 175 188 209 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 152 149 146 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 51 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 12 7 -3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 57 56 52 62 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 107 59 28 -33 -85 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.7 101.8 102.1 102.4 103.4 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 16 13 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -7. -14. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -27. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.0 101.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 21.7% 20.4% 19.5% 12.9% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 6.2% 5.9% 2.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 9.8% 8.9% 7.4% 5.6% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##