* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP172021 10/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 77 73 69 61 54 50 47 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 80 80 77 60 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 77 61 48 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 16 16 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 155 180 199 210 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 148 146 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 50 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 1 -5 -8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 56 49 41 37 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 71 33 -39 -90 -147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.5 102.9 103.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 13 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -30. -33. -35. -35. -35. -35. -34. -34. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.5 101.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172021 RICK 10/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 18.8% 18.1% 17.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 4.4% 4.8% 2.3% 3.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.5% 7.7% 6.5% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172021 RICK 10/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##