* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 51 50 52 54 59 65 57 38 37 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 51 50 52 54 59 65 57 38 37 35 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 49 49 51 54 61 66 57 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 16 23 18 12 8 7 28 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -5 6 -2 -3 -3 7 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 252 231 220 204 204 203 233 252 201 184 186 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.0 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.3 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.1 21.4 19.2 17.5 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 80 80 79 77 79 82 83 84 85 80 77 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 71 70 69 67 70 72 72 72 76 73 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -55.4 -56.1 -56.7 -58.5 -58.5 -59.2 -60.3 -60.3 -59.5 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 52 51 50 40 46 46 57 52 45 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 22 21 19 17 17 15 16 21 18 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 116 87 65 35 31 -13 -5 8 16 3 -33 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 26 29 40 72 66 11 22 8 43 64 7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 1 0 -9 1 0 4 -2 -8 -43 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1364 1314 1267 1246 1227 1318 1514 1628 1677 1734 1821 1528 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.2 40.9 41.4 41.9 41.7 40.1 38.7 38.1 39.1 41.6 45.2 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.3 39.2 38.1 36.7 36.4 36.3 34.5 31.4 28.3 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 3 6 8 5 4 13 19 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 29. 29. 28. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -7. -12. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 7. 9. 14. 20. 12. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.4 39.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 50 51 50 52 54 59 65 57 38 37 35 33 31 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 49 48 50 52 57 63 55 36 35 33 31 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 45 44 46 48 53 59 51 32 31 29 27 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 36 38 40 45 51 43 24 23 21 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT