* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 32 35 41 47 49 53 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 32 35 41 47 49 53 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 20 20 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 4 3 7 10 12 11 10 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 3 7 6 2 1 2 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 289 276 202 255 301 319 327 344 344 353 11 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 139 143 144 141 142 138 141 138 142 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 74 72 72 73 78 75 73 71 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 14 16 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 9 2 2 -11 -14 -19 -21 -25 -28 -20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -44 -27 4 0 -23 5 17 21 17 22 43 87 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 440 455 495 533 607 683 773 811 872 947 973 988 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 7 9 10 11 13 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 4 4 3 6 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 5. 11. 17. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 89.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 29.1% 10.5% 5.8% 1.2% 5.9% 2.0% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 14.2% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##