* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 27 29 33 38 44 52 52 55 58 61 61 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 27 29 33 38 44 52 52 55 58 61 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 20 20 20 20 21 24 26 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 8 9 10 7 7 6 14 12 11 12 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 7 3 4 3 2 6 2 0 -4 0 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 170 187 190 188 192 317 352 4 12 346 66 84 87 104 134 168 196 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.7 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 143 142 141 136 141 140 144 144 145 144 139 142 134 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 73 71 72 73 75 78 77 75 74 73 69 68 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 15 17 14 15 16 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -18 -21 -26 -19 -26 -21 -30 -21 -13 0 15 9 14 15 22 200 MB DIV -9 -27 -26 -22 -26 38 31 32 24 44 98 109 107 91 79 68 36 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -6 -4 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 456 502 544 593 644 745 807 831 902 960 1029 1141 1285 1448 1555 1677 1845 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.0 92.7 93.5 94.4 96.4 98.4 100.7 103.3 105.6 107.8 110.2 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 11 13 12 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 4 5 6 2 4 5 7 7 21 8 5 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 8. 14. 22. 22. 25. 28. 31. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 91.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.90 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.2% 13.5% 12.4% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 20.0% 5.7% 3.2% 0.2% 4.4% 0.6% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 11.4% 6.4% 5.2% 0.1% 5.8% 0.2% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##