* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 33 41 45 51 53 56 57 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 33 41 45 51 53 56 57 59 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 21 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 9 12 6 7 2 3 7 2 3 6 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 5 4 2 2 6 5 9 3 -1 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 185 206 190 202 295 331 337 4 344 31 127 122 195 169 133 137 133 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.8 27.5 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 145 146 141 143 140 145 143 146 147 141 135 138 134 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 73 75 75 78 75 76 75 74 73 71 64 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 12 12 10 10 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -23 -25 -22 -16 -23 -27 -31 -25 -25 -12 -26 -19 -8 2 0 200 MB DIV -31 -24 -16 -9 -4 20 23 21 42 87 98 126 66 54 54 60 88 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 -3 -3 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 490 528 572 619 675 763 806 855 921 968 1041 1136 1265 1369 1449 1573 1742 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.9 11.3 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.7 93.4 94.3 95.2 97.2 99.5 102.0 104.4 106.8 109.3 111.5 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 5 7 5 5 4 9 6 14 16 6 3 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 3. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 3. 11. 15. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 92.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.7% 12.2% 11.2% 0.0% 11.8% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 10.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 7.8% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##