* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 32 38 45 50 53 55 56 56 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 32 38 45 50 53 55 56 56 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 9 8 10 6 6 3 6 6 7 9 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 5 3 5 6 3 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 195 198 202 294 332 2 349 17 335 87 134 138 142 163 179 188 187 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.4 26.7 26.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 140 137 138 141 143 144 146 142 137 139 132 130 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 71 75 76 75 73 70 68 69 70 67 58 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -22 -27 -23 -18 -21 -20 -27 -25 -31 -32 -24 -20 -17 -10 12 33 200 MB DIV -28 -28 -1 14 31 45 29 19 67 106 83 84 49 58 34 48 37 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 -1 -2 -2 1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 562 617 673 735 790 847 874 917 967 1034 1128 1274 1450 1563 1687 1842 1999 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.7 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.8 94.6 95.6 96.6 98.8 101.0 103.4 105.8 108.4 110.8 113.2 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 7 6 2 3 5 6 8 20 6 4 5 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 2. 8. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 92.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.1% 13.0% 11.8% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 6.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.9% 4.9% 4.2% 0.0% 4.5% 0.1% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##