* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 28 31 37 45 52 57 60 62 62 62 60 56 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 28 31 37 45 52 57 60 62 62 62 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 24 24 26 28 30 33 35 36 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 7 5 7 4 3 4 5 11 6 6 7 7 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 4 5 6 7 4 2 3 -2 0 0 1 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 207 214 299 336 10 315 30 42 89 94 103 116 143 156 178 222 240 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.5 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.2 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 139 136 140 138 142 143 144 144 137 140 136 131 133 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 70 72 73 73 74 72 70 71 71 69 66 60 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -27 -25 -19 -19 -23 -27 -27 -19 -16 -17 -16 -14 3 17 27 200 MB DIV -26 -17 -8 0 3 17 11 51 71 91 148 114 96 46 40 30 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 627 686 753 799 832 884 912 983 1064 1156 1241 1406 1559 1683 1783 1913 2113 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.4 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.0 95.9 97.0 98.0 100.4 102.6 105.1 107.9 110.3 112.4 114.8 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 13 12 10 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 7 5 2 4 3 6 7 21 9 4 6 3 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 7. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 94.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.2% 12.0% 11.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.6% 3.9% 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##