* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 38 43 49 55 59 61 63 64 60 57 54 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 38 43 49 55 59 61 63 64 60 57 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 29 30 31 33 35 35 31 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 3 4 7 5 4 5 12 7 3 9 17 20 21 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 7 6 -4 1 3 4 1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 279 323 352 12 321 34 87 48 43 57 100 171 197 218 249 286 296 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.1 28.4 28.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 137 136 141 142 143 141 137 140 141 137 150 149 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 70 73 72 72 74 71 71 71 73 71 70 68 60 58 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -21 -32 -24 -27 -34 -31 -34 -24 -14 -9 -13 -17 -9 -15 -16 200 MB DIV -8 -4 -5 2 7 47 60 80 60 99 67 69 32 -12 -16 -11 -20 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 778 816 845 874 912 966 1013 1097 1191 1300 1484 1609 1745 1952 2169 2401 2613 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.1 98.1 99.4 100.6 102.9 105.3 107.8 110.1 112.5 115.2 117.8 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 13 13 12 13 14 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 4 3 2 6 7 19 7 4 7 5 2 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. 30. 27. 24. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.5 96.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.7% 16.4% 14.8% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 74.4% 41.1% 26.6% 2.4% 11.9% 2.5% 22.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 31.6% 19.2% 13.8% 0.8% 9.0% 0.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##