* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 43 50 57 61 64 64 62 58 56 53 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 43 50 57 61 64 64 62 58 56 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 33 33 33 34 35 37 38 37 34 29 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 5 6 4 3 4 6 7 5 8 11 13 17 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 8 6 5 4 0 0 0 4 4 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 331 6 12 354 19 40 14 90 64 96 178 222 218 237 284 292 304 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.9 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.5 26.9 28.1 28.5 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 138 134 140 141 143 143 138 141 141 134 147 151 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 74 72 72 72 72 67 72 70 72 72 70 64 60 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -26 -20 -21 -28 -27 -27 -26 -19 -12 -6 -9 -7 -8 -12 -20 200 MB DIV -3 -2 9 11 34 65 62 96 81 66 19 29 15 -11 -17 4 -15 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 816 850 887 914 957 1009 1056 1130 1223 1383 1542 1697 1892 2094 2323 2545 2594 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.1 99.2 100.5 101.8 104.1 106.5 109.1 111.3 113.9 116.7 119.6 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 3 3 1 5 5 13 15 4 6 6 1 7 10 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 34. 34. 32. 28. 26. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.4 97.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.5% 14.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 23.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.3% 2.6% 2.7% 26.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 13.2% 7.2% 5.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 8.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/06/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##