* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/07/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 35 43 50 52 54 56 54 52 50 47 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 35 43 50 52 54 56 54 52 50 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 25 26 27 29 31 32 30 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 2 5 7 4 3 4 1 10 10 10 11 15 19 25 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 6 7 9 10 2 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 0 -1 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 4 309 338 347 32 292 32 59 83 109 172 215 231 270 295 291 325 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.6 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 138 134 135 141 141 145 140 137 141 142 142 151 148 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 71 68 67 69 71 71 68 65 58 56 51 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -20 -16 -15 -17 -25 -26 -27 -10 -7 -8 -3 2 6 -4 -5 -22 200 MB DIV 10 15 5 22 35 12 55 55 82 37 74 31 -19 -3 -17 -19 -27 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 843 876 916 939 967 1028 1087 1164 1320 1499 1624 1788 2017 2203 2385 2602 2468 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.5 102.7 105.2 107.6 110.1 112.8 115.3 117.9 120.7 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 15 14 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 2 6 6 18 6 5 8 4 4 10 9 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 13. 20. 22. 24. 26. 24. 22. 20. 17. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.3 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 41.4% 15.9% 6.9% 0.4% 5.4% 1.4% 17.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 19.7% 5.3% 2.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 5.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##