* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 32 31 35 41 47 49 52 52 51 49 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 32 31 35 41 47 49 52 52 51 49 47 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 25 26 28 30 32 33 31 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 5 1 3 2 7 13 8 9 11 13 20 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 6 13 12 5 2 -4 -5 -4 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 353 347 356 229 307 115 112 114 146 191 232 248 276 299 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.1 28.1 28.5 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 138 141 141 143 142 137 140 141 136 147 150 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 68 69 64 69 70 70 70 66 64 60 57 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -19 -17 -19 -21 -23 -22 -7 -3 -2 -4 -2 4 0 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 24 26 48 29 47 65 51 52 44 66 33 15 -16 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -6 -5 2 2 0 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 914 949 982 1016 1077 1175 1282 1452 1571 1715 1901 2095 2300 2489 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.9 101.1 102.3 103.5 104.7 107.2 109.7 112.1 114.7 117.1 119.6 122.3 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 3 5 6 18 10 4 7 7 2 7 10 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 5. 11. 17. 19. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.2 99.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.91 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.7% 16.7% 15.5% 0.0% 16.1% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 53.5% 28.4% 13.8% 0.7% 9.4% 2.2% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 24.1% 15.0% 9.8% 0.2% 8.5% 5.9% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##