* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 30 29 34 39 45 46 48 49 50 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 30 29 34 39 45 46 48 49 50 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 23 23 24 25 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 1 5 2 5 12 7 9 9 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 8 13 12 10 4 -2 0 -3 -3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 11 354 277 266 331 120 105 122 216 226 175 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.3 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 134 137 138 145 143 138 140 140 137 135 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 70 67 66 69 69 68 68 69 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -15 -23 -26 -29 -26 -18 -10 -6 -5 -12 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 33 35 13 4 45 49 41 46 67 50 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -1 2 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 953 989 1017 1045 1129 1215 1336 1546 1653 1731 1887 2103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.4 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.9 102.0 103.2 104.4 105.6 108.2 110.5 112.9 115.6 117.9 119.7 122.0 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 10 10 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 2 4 4 10 18 5 8 10 6 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. 4. 9. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.2 100.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.7% 15.2% 14.1% 0.0% 15.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 38.2% 17.3% 6.6% 0.2% 6.1% 1.7% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 18.3% 10.8% 6.9% 0.1% 7.0% 5.5% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##