* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192021 11/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 19 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 6 13 8 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 220 219 221 230 233 213 207 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 142 139 137 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 63 65 64 61 59 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -31 -25 -24 -32 -44 -41 -23 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 57 54 55 37 26 -21 -8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1076 1071 1070 1075 1087 1198 1375 1544 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 9 9 11 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 113.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192021 NINETEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192021 NINETEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##