* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182021 11/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 29 28 28 31 35 37 39 40 43 46 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 29 28 28 31 35 37 39 40 43 46 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 25 23 22 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 3 6 1 8 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 11 12 11 6 3 1 -3 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 10 316 255 287 183 104 122 192 217 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 139 142 145 141 137 141 141 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 66 67 67 68 66 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -24 -28 -27 -31 -26 -14 -13 -12 -12 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 27 11 27 41 53 21 8 20 76 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 -3 -3 2 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 989 1017 1043 1063 1176 1288 1438 1612 1731 1869 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.3 104.5 105.7 106.9 109.4 111.9 114.2 116.7 119.1 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 4 6 17 10 4 11 13 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.3 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.8% 16.1% 14.9% 0.0% 16.6% 14.9% 11.9% Logistic: 9.5% 56.9% 33.1% 15.7% 0.7% 13.1% 1.8% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 24.9% 16.4% 10.2% 0.2% 9.9% 5.6% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 EIGHTEEN 11/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##