* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP192021 11/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 15 18 23 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 8 13 11 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 219 224 223 223 218 213 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 140 135 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 63 61 57 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -19 -26 -32 -32 -25 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 55 57 27 19 4 -42 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1126 1114 1106 1114 1126 1236 1379 1606 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.3 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.5 117.1 118.8 120.8 123.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 9 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 9 10 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -22. -23. -22. -22. -20. -19. -17. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.8 114.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192021 SANDRA 11/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192021 SANDRA 11/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##