* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP192021 11/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 31 25 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 31 25 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 34 33 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 17 18 21 23 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 13 14 11 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 227 223 215 211 213 208 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 139 136 134 136 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 61 56 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -14 -16 -17 -26 -35 -16 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 54 20 33 29 -41 -5 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1154 1168 1184 1205 1319 1529 1804 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.6 15.3 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.2 117.9 118.5 120.3 122.9 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 11 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 11 15 10 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. -16. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 115.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192021 SANDRA 11/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 10.6% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192021 SANDRA 11/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##