* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP192021 11/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 28 23 19 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 28 23 19 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 16 18 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 10 12 12 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 220 210 203 206 193 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 138 136 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 62 61 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -21 -23 -25 -24 -24 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 36 29 48 31 -23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1174 1191 1214 1258 1306 1441 1668 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.8 117.5 118.3 119.1 121.2 123.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 7 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 116.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192021 SANDRA 11/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 11.9% 7.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 4.1% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192021 SANDRA 11/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##