* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 31 30 33 38 44 48 50 51 53 55 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 31 30 33 38 44 48 50 51 53 55 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 32 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 5 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 4 2 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 299 298 265 250 44 27 215 221 193 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.2 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 149 146 145 137 135 137 131 130 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 68 69 70 69 66 64 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -26 -31 -34 -35 -21 -14 -21 -20 -10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 51 78 79 50 63 36 40 64 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 3 5 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 964 983 1015 1082 1143 1304 1453 1604 1784 1982 2207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.2 108.4 109.7 110.9 113.5 116.1 118.7 121.5 124.3 127.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 8 10 16 15 3 3 4 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -5. -2. 3. 9. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.9 106.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.8% 17.9% 16.9% 10.1% 17.5% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 28.2% 14.5% 6.4% 0.5% 7.3% 2.9% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 16.1% 10.8% 7.8% 3.5% 8.3% 6.2% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##