* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 25 29 35 41 47 50 52 55 56 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 25 29 35 41 47 50 52 55 56 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 22 23 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 1 4 6 3 5 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 1 3 -1 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 237 223 224 151 78 151 194 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.9 27.3 26.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 146 145 141 134 138 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 68 68 71 68 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 10 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -27 -32 -31 -24 -10 -12 -14 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 82 91 52 37 51 33 69 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 2 5 3 0 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 1027 1067 1122 1190 1369 1492 1680 1878 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.7 109.9 111.2 112.4 114.9 117.6 120.4 123.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 12 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 16 13 6 2 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -1. 5. 11. 17. 20. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 21.4% 18.5% 17.3% 0.0% 16.9% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 40.7% 21.9% 11.9% 1.0% 14.4% 8.0% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 20.8% 13.5% 9.7% 0.3% 10.4% 7.9% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##