* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 35 38 39 41 42 44 46 47 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 35 38 39 41 42 44 46 47 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 4 2 3 7 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 2 4 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 204 164 142 281 227 200 230 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 27.3 27.0 26.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 142 138 134 138 135 127 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 68 68 68 67 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -31 -28 -18 -13 -19 -25 -24 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 55 67 65 79 56 76 16 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 1 -1 -4 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1052 1108 1176 1253 1330 1436 1608 1829 2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.0 112.2 113.5 114.7 117.1 119.6 122.5 125.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 7 4 2 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 109.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 23.7% 20.5% 19.2% 0.0% 19.1% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 61.0% 40.8% 30.4% 5.5% 35.8% 15.2% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 28.5% 20.5% 16.6% 1.8% 18.3% 10.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##